Trading Shaq
Since Jordan stopped retiring and coming back, has there been a better and more frequent story line than the continuing possibility of Shaq being traded?
Even before the NBA finals were over, newspapers and bloggers jumped on the latest pending Shaq trade. The obvious assumed destinations are Cleveland and Dallas. Mike Fisher of DallasBasketball.com has already weighed in with his usual brand Mavs optimism balanced with some rumor bubble popping.
However, I think there may be one important factor that has been largely under-reported.
The Suns situation changed once the trade deadline passed this past season.
The Suns had a very strong motivation to trade Shaq prior to the 2009 in-season trade deadline. They were a playoff-bubble team on the wrong side of the bubble, with three very high priced players. The Suns had a difficult decision to make.
They could try to make a run to the playoffs and earn that ever so valuable playoff money, keep the fans excited and hope they catch lightening in a bottle. Or, reduce the pending tax bill, unload the last year and (roughly) a quarter of Shaq’s salary and go into a limited rebuilding mode.
Phoenix took the safe route. They tested the trade waters but couldn’t find a deal good enough to justify throwing in the towel and alienating fans. So, they kept their players, changed the head coach and rolled the dice.
Of course, a few days later Amare’s eyeball popped out and their season was effectively over. And so now, we all assume the Suns will pick up the trade discussion where they left off and the two (assumed) contenders for Shaq’s services will be back at the plate. But two very important things have changed.
The Suns are no longer on the playoff bubble. They are 82 games and roughly 50 wins shy of the 2010 playoffs. And Shaq is now on an expiring contract.
You may look at the Suns tax bill and try to dismiss this latter issue, but the first issue is very important to Robert Sarver. If the Suns trade Shaq for expiring deals in the off season, they aren’t just throwing in the towel for 20 games. They are throwing in the towel for 82 games.
What Robert Sarver and the Phoenix Suns need right now is ticket sales and optimism. What they need to do right now is remind Suns fans of those two ridiculous games between the coach’s firing and Amare’s ugly retina issue. The Suns need those fancy Obama ‘Hope’ posters because they need to sell tickets.
OR…
The Suns need to unload a lot more than Shaq’s fat expiring deal. The Suns need to contend for a playoff spot or drop way below their current salary obligations.
That is why Cleveland’s old offer of Wallace and Pavlovic and Dallas’s expected offer of Dampier and Stackhouse may not be music to Sarver’s penny pinching ears. The Suns need some hope to go with that savings. And there is a reason for them to be very reluctant to just take the savings.
NEXT summer, the much discussed free agency of 2010, Steve Nash could be a free agent too. Combined with Shaq’s expiring deal, that is a possible 33 Million Dollars coming off of the Suns books next summer. And Jason’s Richardson enters the final year of his contract which gives them a $14 million expiring contract to offer in trade for teams trying to come out ahead in the big free agency deals.
In one summer, the Suns could totally remake their salary structure and jump start the rebuilding process. What? How could this happen, you say?
Well, they could just go the really cheap route and let Shaq and Nash walk. Probably not likely but possible if Sarver’s pocket is really on fire. More likely, they kindly offer to sign-and trade Shaq and Nash to the teams of their choice because neither player is likely to want to hang up their high-tops OR sign for the mid-level exception OR sign with a lame team under the cap.
What would Shaq get on the semi-open market at this age? What would Nash get on the semi-open market at this age? I’m guessing they can both do at least as well as Jason Kidd will do this summer.
Would your local contender pay one of these guys roughly $8 million per year for three years to try to regain some playoff magic? Maybe on a contract that goes down the last two years or has a team option for year three? You say yes? Well, then you will need to sign and trade with Phoenix to get that chance.
Say the Suns get two young guys for each trade of Nash and Shaq and they trade Richardson’s expiring deal to one of the losers of the LeBron/Wade/Bosh sweepstakes. That could give the Suns 5 or 6 new and young players with Sarver friendly contracts.
There is your new Suns team with a manageable payroll and a fresh lease on life.
In the mean time, the Suns roll out into the 09-10 season with the same line-up that scored 280 points in two nights before the nasty eyeball thing. The Phoenix fans, always a great fan base, line up in droves to watch one last full season of Run-n-Gun Suns and maybe, just maybe, they shake all of that 08-09 bad karma.
So, don’t get your hopes up for your team landing Shaq in a salary dump. The Suns may have already accepted the fact that they will be stuck with a big salary for one more season and looking to get the most bang for their $60 some-odd million.
What? You don’t want me to squash your Shaq trade hopes? Okay, one glimmer of hope for you greedy non-Suns fans. The Suns could try to remake their entire roster THIS off-season and trade away the whole darn team. Amare probably won’t be seriously offered until teams can see that his robotic eye works. (I’m just kidding! sorta.)
But if they trade Shaq for cash saving spares like Dampier (who can’t catch Nash’s nifty passes anyway) then it seems a good bet that Nash is on his way out too. Nash was depressing enough last season. The poor guy spent most of the season with this bewildered “how the heck did this happen to me? To ME?!” look on his face.
Why deal with the brooding of Nash on a losing team while lowering his perceived trade value (you can hear the “Nash is too old” articles being written already).
If you deal Shaq for cash savings, you have to assume Nash is on the market too and Amare will be as soon as you can get $0.80 on the dollar.
